An Analysis of Subject Behavior Risk in Expressway Operation by the System Dynamic Model

摘要

The expressway management involves several subjects,so the indeterminacy of its behaviors will consequentially make the management process to be complex and full of risk.Furthermore,it is rather difficult to quantify the risk.Just from the view of acting,this paper founds a system dynamic model to analyze the subjects' behavior risk in expressway operation,so as to reasonably analyze the risk in quantity.Firstly,define the scope of the research system,then identify the factors which influence the risk,and draw the feedback structure chart of the risk.Then use Vensim to simulate by computer.Finally,analyze the result of simulating.