Traffic Mode Share Analysis under Competition of CRH Sleeper and Aviation in Beijing-Guangzhou Transportation Corridor

摘要

In this article, a model is constructed based on MNL model (namely Multinomial Logit model) to study on the passenger flow sharing rate between Beijing-Guangzhou CRH (namely China Railway High-speed) sleeper train (referred to as "the train" hereinafter) and aviation. With orthogonal SP (namely Stated Preference) data and NLOGIT software, parameters of this model are calibrated. Aggregate analysis on passenger flow share ratio, elastic analysis and simulation under a specific situation are conducted as well. Then the varying situation of share ratio of the train can be made clear under specific conditions. According to the simulation results, the selection rate of the train lacks elastic to the price and traveling time. Increasing ticket price can make up for passenger loss, and improving comfort level of the train can as well. The aim of this paper is to provide a scientific basis for the sharing rate algorithm of transportation modes, and provide ideas for the realization of dynamic fare according to the scene simulation.