A network-based model for market share estimation among competing transportation modes in a regional corridor.

摘要

This research has presented an innovative application of static traffic assignment methods for market share estimation in a regional corridor having multiple competing transportation modes. The proposed model employs the time-space network structure to capture the interrelations among all competing transportation modes, and to reflect their supply- and demand-sides constraints as well as interactions through properly formulated link-node structures. The embedded cost function for each network link offers the flexibility for incorporating all associated factors, such as travel time and fare, in the model computation, and enables the use of a distribution rather than a constant to represent the time-value variation among all potential mode transportation users.; Under the assumption that intercity tripmakers often have closed to “perfect” information, one can solve the market share of each mode for each O-D pair under the time-dependent demand with state-of-the-art algorithms in static traffic assignments. With a specified objective function for system optimum, the proposed model can also function as a tool for computing the optimal trip distribution among competing modes. Policymakers can then use such information to evaluate the role of each mode in a regional corridor, and if any implemented policy can help the entire system evolving toward a system-optimum state.; To ensure a proper function of the model, this research has performed an extensive simulation evaluation and sensitivity analysis with various time-dependent demand levels and each O-D, including a range of time-value parameters and cost specifications. The developed model has also been tested with data from a real-world system, the NW-SE regional corridor of Korea that consists of four cities and three transportation modes (i.e., freeway, rails, and air). Its fourth mode, highway-speed rail, is under construction.; With a well-calibrated mean and variance of time-value distribution for tripmakers, this research has also performed a market share for all competing transportation modes for all time-varying O-D demands after operations of new high-speed rail system. The impact of the new system on all other competing transportation modes, along with the evaluation of the optimal fare policy with respect to moving the entire corridor toward the system-optimum state has also been explored.