How Double Counting has Systematically Oversized the Photovoltaic Industry and Why this is a Problem

摘要

Outsourcing has always been a common practice in the photovoltaic industry and with global demand at gigawatt levels the practice has increased significantly with modules resold sometimes three times with three separate manufacturers claiming the same module as part of its internal production. Double counting may account for as much as a 20% difference between what was actually shipped to the first buyer and the announced totals. The over counting problem is further magnified by confusion over inventory levels on the demand and supply sides of the industry and a lack of understanding of what other metrics, such as installations, mean in terms of describing industry behavior. Unfortunately, misunderstandings as to industry size lead governments to assume a higher level of progress and encourage businesses to develop strategies that are not borne out by reality. This can lead to incentives terminated too soon and costly business missteps.