Improved Sequential Monte Carlo Method Approach to Substation Connection Reliability Assessment

摘要

Reliability evaluation for substation main connection is one of the key tasks for power system reliability evaluation.Based on the traditional sequential Monte Carlo method, it is difficult to ensure the calculation accuracy of the substation main connection because the two-state model and the constant load model are adopted.. Therefore, this paper proposed an improved sequential Monte Carlo method approach to substation connection reliability evaluation. The method adopted four-state and five-state model for isolation switch and circuit breakers respectively, and took the switching operation into account to correct the system fault duration, finally used the real-time load curve to calculate the reliability index. The example showed that the reliability index obtained by the improved method, which includes the loss of load possibility and the expected energy not served, are smaller than the traditional results. Meanwhile, the evaluation results of improved method are more rigorous, which provides a new way for the substations connection reliability assessment.