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Use of Historical Data to Provide Process Leak Frequency Estimates

机译:使用历史数据提供过程泄漏频率估计

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A key driver in the risk assessment of an offshore installation or process plant is the leak frequency as this is combined with the consequence information to determine the process safety risks.Frequencies are normally determined by processing historic information on incidents.The UK's Hydrocarbon Release Database(HCRD)captures the details of almost 5000 leaks for UK North Sea offshore installations from 1992 to the present day.It is the most commonly used source of leak frequency data both in the UK and the US.It is also applied as many other parts of the world as well as being used for onshore process plants and refineries.Revised correlations for leak frequency and hole size distribution have been developed by DNV GL on behalf of the International Association of Oil and Gas Producers(IOGP).This analysis indicates a significant reduction in leak frequency which has implications for risk-based design and operational decision making.Alternative correlations produced by organizations in the Norwegian offshore industry show a similar significant reduction.With such a high reliance on the use of the HCRD as a source,it is important that the reporting,recording,collation and interpretation of the data is thorough and technically sound.There are initiatives in place or planned to further improve the data collection and thereby the accuracy of the estimates produced.This paper discusses how the IOGP leak frequency correlations were derived from the HCRD and the measures taken to ensure robustness of the conclusions.It also explores the impact of using the updated frequency correlations in quantitative risk assessments and future work investigating the technical quality of the HCRD.
机译:海上设施或加工厂风险评估的一个关键驱动因素是泄漏频率,因为泄漏频率与后果信息相结合,以确定工艺安全风险。频率通常是通过处理事件的历史信息来确定的。英国的碳氢化合物排放数据库 (HCRD) 捕获了从 1992 年至今英国北海海上设施的近 5000 次泄漏的详细信息。它是英国最常用的泄漏频率数据源,US.It 也应用于世界许多其他地区,并用于陆上加工厂和炼油厂。DNV GL 代表国际石油和天然气生产商协会 (IOGP) 制定了泄漏频率和孔径分布的修订相关性。该分析表明泄漏频率显著降低,这对基于风险的设计和作决策具有影响。挪威海上工业组织产生的替代相关性也显示出类似的显著减少。由于如此高度依赖使用 HCRD 作为来源,数据的报告、记录、整理和解释必须彻底且技术合理。已经采取或计划采取一些措施来进一步改进数据收集,从而提高所生成估计的准确性。本文讨论了如何从 HCRD 得出 IOGP 泄漏频率相关性,以及为确保结论的稳健性而采取的措施。它还探讨了在定量风险评估和调查 HCRD 技术质量的未来工作中使用更新的频率相关性的影响。

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