Research on Chaos Theory Based Mine Production Safety Risk Evaluation

摘要

The mine production safety risk evaluation is an essential important link before mining, and it is an important premise of scientific decision-making and programming. The mine production safety risk evaluation is one kind of time series appraisal, which establishes time series model according to the historical data first, then extrapolates the future situation according to this model. In tradition, rational forecast based on explicit linear model is generally applied, then man-made evaluation is carried on, whose characteristic is little computation and easy for manual practice. However, as a result of complex realistic system, application of rational forecast based on explicit linear model receives much limitation. We have also discovered in the research that, in the mine production safety risk evaluation chaos time series characteristic of non-linear is included. Therefore, to solve problem of its safety risk evaluation, this article has done a systematic research on it based on chaos theory. First, this article does a study on a linear safety risk evaluation model constructed with root-taking theory and analyzes its limitation. It also introduces foundation of the chaos time series evaluation, i.e. the phase space restructuring theory, and studies evaluation possibility of time series from the aspect of non-linear dynamics. Then, it proves non-linear characteristic of safety risk evaluation through research, introduces chaos theory to conduct a chaos research on the safety risk evaluation, and summarizes its chaos characteristic. Finally, it carries on related test referred to a concrete risk factor.