East Java Human Development Index Modeling with Spatial Regression Approach

摘要

The success of the development of the quality of life in a country or region can be measured through an indicator called Human Development Index (HDI). HDI is formed by three basic dimensions, namely a long and healthy life, knowledge, and decent standard of living. Since 2010 East Java Province has an HDI value that continues increasing from year to year. East Java Province's HDI in 2016 reached 0.6974 or increased by 6.71% from the 2015 HDI. The purpose of this study is modeling the factors that are expected influencing HDI districts/cities of East Java Province 2016, namely per capita expenditure, morbidity, percentage of poor people and mean years of schooling. The analysis was carried out using a spatial regression approach. The results of the analysis obtained that the variables that significantly influence HDI discticts/cities of East Java Province in 2016 are per capita expenditure, the percentage of poor people and mean years of schooling. Modeling with spatial error regression results better when compared with spatial lag regression, because the spatial error regression model has a lower AIC (Akaike Information Criterion), which is 114.63, while the spatial lag regression is 119.98.