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Research of Chinese Government debt sustainability and its effect on economic growth

机译:中国政府债务可持续性及其对经济增长影响的研究

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This paper researches the appropriate scale of Chinese government debt from the perspective of debt sustainability and its effect on economic growth. First, we made a model based on fiscal response framework and introduced trade openness, savings ratio and so on as control variables. We use it to measure the upper limit of the sustainable debt ratio over the years. Then we did empirical research and found that government debt has a threshold effect on economic growth, with a turning point of about 33.3%. Besides, we also found that debt affects economy by affecting the formation of total society capital significantly, and excessive debt may inhibit the formation. According to our research, the government should release savings reasonably, improve its sensitivity to debt and use it more efficiently to enhance the turning point of debt impact. Government should also gradually reduce current debt ratio to optimize the relative scale of debt.
机译:本文从债务可持续性的角度研究了中国政府债务的适当规模及其对经济增长的影响。 首先,我们根据财政响应框架制作了一个模型,并引入了贸易开放,节省比等作为控制变量。 我们使用它来衡量多年来可持续债务比率的上限。 然后我们做了实证研究,发现政府债务对经济增长具有阈值影响,转折点约为33.3%。 此外,我们还发现,通过影响全社会资本的形成显着影响,债务影响,债务过剩可能会抑制形成。 根据我们的研究,政府应该合理地释放储蓄,提高其对债务的敏感性,并更有效地使用它来增强债务影响的转折点。 政府还应逐步降低当前的债务比率,以优化债务的相对规模。

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