Addressing Obsolescence from Day One in the Conceptual Phase of Complex Systems as a Design Constraint

摘要

Obsolescence issues are one of the main costs in the life-cycle of sustainment-dominated systems, those that require support for many decades. Obsolescence not only occurs when a system element becomes no longer available due to manufacturing updates or production interruption. It also includes the deterioration of the system or component capacity to operate as intended, since it is no longer suitable to fulfil its function, even if it still operates and can be manufactured and supported. As such, it also impacts on the "-ilities" (reliability, functionality, etc. ...) which can be even traced to legislation changes, for instance, the anti-pollution legislation updates for automotive. Obsolescence has so far been mainly addressed from a reactive point of view. Around 70% of the total product cost is committed as a result of decisions in the early design stages. Late changes induce delays in the life-cycle plan and large increases in cost due to re-design and rework. Knowing the impact of the conceptual design phase on life-cycle cost, this paper intends to present a model-based systems engineering approach to proactively assess obsolescence risks. The approach uses obsolescence considerations as constraints during the early design phases, to allow the identification of components potentially at risk of obsolescence. Presenting designers with this information allows them to improve the design, by making it robust and resilient, or to accept the risk and develop an obsolescence mitigation plan. It will be illustrated with an example from the automotive industry.