Improving Methods of Estimation of Transport Demand for Urban Passenger Transportation

摘要

The article is devoted to the issues of the transportation demand estimation. Existing methods to bring up to date the Origin-Destination matrix are reviewed. A regression method to update the passenger Origin-Destination matrix is proposed. The proposed method is compared with the method of calculating the Origin-Destination matrix using the population mobility data. The comparability of the proposed method with the standard method of calculating the Origin-Destination matrix is established. The characteristics of the transport mobility of Irkutsk city population are also established. The relevance of the research topic is determined by the growth of the level of vehicle-to-population ratio and transport mobility of our country population that complicates the process of designing and managing urban passenger transport systems (UPT). One of the urgent objectives is the development of efficient methods to estimate the demand for transportation services, including ones to determine the distribution of this demand between UPT and individual road transport. Constantly updated information on transportation demand improves the efficiency of the management of the UPT system and improves the quality of transportation services provided to the population.