MANAGING FLOOD RISK IN COASTAL CITIES THROUGH AN INTEGRATED MODELLING FRAMEWORK SUPPORTING STAKEHOLDERS' INVOLVEMENT: THE CASE OF RETHYMNO, CRETE

摘要

Coastal communities are increasingly at risk from coastal hazards such as floods. Extreme hydro-meteorological events related to sea level rise, storm surges, heavy precipitation, shoreline erosion are driven by climate variability and increase the exposure of people, livelihoods, environmental services, resources and infrastructure to hazard. Flood risk management, which aims to reduce the likelihood and/or the impacts of floods, is considered inevitable. Rethymno city in Crete is one of the case study areas that PEARL project, an EU funded research project - to be completed by 2017, will develop and apply a holistic risk reduction framework that will include multi-stressor risk assessment and risk cascading while strengthening risk governance by supporting the participation of key actors. The development of a multi-scale integrated modelling framework will enable the simulation of extreme event scenarios and multiple stressors covering the whole domain from the Mediterranean Sea all the way up to hydrological boundaries of Rethymo's river basins. The integrated modelling framework, briefly outlined in this paper, will include the estimation of atmospheric variables and the use of climate change scenarios, the estimation of wave characteristic based on a four level downscaling approach, the modelling of near shore response to hurricane impacts and storms e.g. storm surges, wave propagation, sediment transport, erosion, wave diffraction and refraction, as well as catchment hydrological and urban flood modelling. The socio-economic dimension of Rethymno's urban system as a risk evolution factor will be also investigated through the application of Agent Based Models and Cellular Automata techniques. The developed scenarios will take into account local conditions and flood problems as well as stakeholders' perspective, needs and ambitions. Stakeholders' involvement and their engagement with the integrated modelling framework and its outcomes will assist the development of an actionable roadmap for flood risk management for Rethymno.