Uncertainty Quantification in Human Reliability Modeling for Security Screening Operations

摘要

Human reliability modeling - modeling the propensity for errors in conducting tasks and making decisions by humans, is common in many disciplines such as transportation, military systems, manufacturing, healthcare, and nuclear power generation. However, modeling and quantifying human reliability in the context of security and security screening operations (e.g, airport security screening of passengers and baggage, customs and security screening of conveyances, containers, and materials arriving at our nation's port of entries, etc.) in particular is less common. The need for such modeling is increasingly apparent and even crucial to fully characterize the overall performance and limitations of such security screening operations. Indeed, as more and more research and development funding is devoted towards new technologies and systems, the human element can easily become the limiting component in the overall performance and success of security screening operations. A method to quantify the human reliability aspect in conducting security screening operations and especially quantifying the uncertainty of such human reliability assessment is the focus of this paper.