Early-warning Analysis for Carrying Capacity in Nandaihe International Amusement Centre Based on Fuzzy Inference and Gray Forecasting

摘要

Nandaihe international amusement centre spot as an example is analyzed in this paper. The paper presents a method based on fuzzy inference and gray forecasting, indexes of tourism environment carrying capacity in scenic spots is established, extract fuzzy rules based on historical data, simulate the situation of tourism environment carrying capacity based on fuzzy inference, gray forecasting model is built for single feature index respectively, and various models are combined in system state formula to forecast, then the forecasting result is used to early-warning with the fuzzy inference model. At last, the method designed is effective.