Prediction Model for Movie Production: A Combination Approach of Mathematics and Game

摘要

Several movies still cause a huge loss to the studio every year which is suspiciously caused by underlying factors and poor decisions. Movie production has always been a challenge due to its unique aspects. Movies itself are artistic, diverse-in-style and short-lived products. Decisions made during production are difficult to revert without consequences and later will possibly affect quality and marketability of the movie. Movie's quality is perceived by the audience, based on their preference. Neither objective quality measurement for movie nor the ab-solute best movie exists. On the other hand, being high quality does not guarantee that the movie will excel financially. To generate better revenue, the movie must have some aspects to attract the audience. This study aims to understand financial impacts of involved factors and support decision making of movie production in order to improve marketability of the movie. In this case, movie production is considered as a process that needs support continuously from the start until the end. Proposed prediction model is a combination of two approaches, mathematical approach and game approach which deal with objective and subjective factors respectively. Mathematical approach uses regression analysis with more factors continuously added into the model as the production progresses. In game approach, players have to maximize the revenue by investing in movie projects with limited budget and information available. After the game, players do a survey, asking about their choices. Using data from players' choices and survey, consensus can be created and determined the feasibility of movie projects in addition to mathematical approach.