Analysis of the economic, technological and environmental feasibility of hybridization and electrification of the national fleet of light vehicles

摘要

Vehicles powered by internal combustion engines correspond to 99.7% of the global fleet. Unfortunately, most of them runs with fossil fuels and contribute with over than 70% of CO and 20% of CO_2 emitted to atmosphere. Global climate change has become a major issue and stringent legislation has been forcing the scientific community to seek a feasible solution for this issue. Renewable fuels, hybrid and electric vehicles have been pointed out as the answer for harmful greenhouse gases emissions. This paper demystifies the wrong belief that ICE will be totally replaced by electric vehicles in short and medium time. The zero emission vehicle (ZEV) terminology applied to EV must abolished since it is not true, as 65% of global electricity is generated from non-renewable sources. Despite of being more efficient, hybrid vehicles are still economically unfeasible. The low global fleet percentage of hybrid and electric vehicles associated with the current growth rate prove mathematically that their market share will not change significantly in short time. Those facts associated with the CO_2-free status of renewable fuels demonstrate that ICE powered by biofuels will play a significant rule in vehicle propulsion in the years to come.