Analysis of Primary Energy Structure Based on Carbon Emission Reduction Targets and Countermeasures

摘要

In order to study the feasibility of China's preset reduction targets in 2030, this study uses linear regression model, grey model and Markov model to forecast China's primary energy consumption, the structure of primary energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions. This paper analyze the possibility of the completion of China's emission reduction targets in 2030 one by one, and the results show that the non-fossil energy development target which Chinese authorities proposed cannot be achieved without extra effort, and the carbon peak objective which Chinese authorities set cannot be achieved naturally. Hence, this paper give countermeasures and suggestions to help achieve the emission reduction targets in 2030. The results of this study have a certain reference value for the development of China's energy policy.