Energy saving and emission reduction of fossil energy based on low carbon economy and its consumption structure optimization

摘要

Energy saving and emission reduction have been not only a slogan but also a policy in this modern society where the phenomenon of greenhouse is exacerbated. In this study, calculation method of carbon emission and integrated parallel acquisition technique (IPAT) scenario prediction model were combined to predict the changes of total carbon emissions, energy structure distribution, and carbon emission intensity under three measures of energy saving and emission reduction in the next ten years in Shandong, China. The results showed that the total carbon emission increased year by year, and the coal ratio and carbon emission intensity decreased under the natural scenario; the total carbon emission in the weakly constrained scenario would increase annually until 2029, the amplitude was smaller than that of the natural scenario, while the coal ratio and carbon emission intensity would decrease, and the amplitude was larger than that of the natural scenario. Under the strongly constrained scenario, the total carbon emission would increase annually before 2025, and the amplitude was smaller than the weakly constrained scenario, while the coal ratio and carbon emission intensity would decrease, and the amplitude was larger than the weakly constrained scenario.