Evolution of the wind resource over the last 30 to 55 years for 11 European regions: Variability analyses and considerations about the uncertainty on long term prediction

摘要

The evolution of the resource over the long term is one of the key issues of the wind industry. Thus, if it is not possible to predict the wind resource in the coming years or decades, an analysis of its evolution during a significant past period allows to better appreciate its variability and potentially the risk of experiencing periods with low wind resource in the future. The method consists of identifying areas where at least 3 independent sources of wind measurements coherent between each other could be found for at least the past 30 years. This method, based on wind measurements recorded by ground meteorological stations, allows to get rid of inhomogeneous data (mainly linked to the evolution of the measuring conditions and/or the environment of the station) and thus ensures the consistency of the average trend. 11 areas were identified across Germany, France, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Denmark where the wind trend could be established back in time between 30 and 55 years from now. The corresponding areas cover the location of more than 2500 operating wind farms.