The industrialized nations of the world have made a number of mistakes in developing and deploying renewable energy sources over the years. Several publications produced by the National Academies of Sciences have pointed out examples of governments failing to sufficiently focus on and invest in technological research and the commercialization of product ideas generated in places like national laboratories, universities and think tanks. Instead, they have often favored the practice of making risky bets, subsidizing technologies that the market in certain cases did not perceive as valuable and was not prepared to absorb. Yet, for all of the errors documented in media headlines, today in 2015 it is clear to most constituents in the energy sector, and even in the broader mainstream marketplace in wealthy nations, that renewable energies are on the march and quickly gaining momentum. Germany deserves a lot of credit on the world stage for the progress renewable energies have made, primarily as a result of its own major bets on the technology. In fact, Germany’s decision to close all of its nuclear power plants by 2022 brought about one of the biggest gambles ever made by an industrialized nation on renewable energy technology. The question of whether Germany would be able to meet its own tough climate change targets without harming its manufacturing and industrial sectors is a real and serious one, which many across the globe have asked and wanted to answer. It was with this bold risk-taking on Germany’s part and questions about its prospects for success that UL’s Chief Economist engaged the energy ecosystem in Germany and the United States to understand why Germany, currently the fifth largest economy in the world, would take such a significant economic risk on renewable energy, why they believe they will ultimately be successful with it, and what the United States and other markets could contribute to and learn from the German experience with its attempt at an energy transformation. The result of this engagement is a clearer picture of what it takes to achieve transformative results in the energy sector, as opposed to a long, winding transition. What the research also makes clear is the way that technology innovations and digital disruptions in the energy space, developed and commercialized in the United States, are poised to put an energy transformation within reach for many more countries around the globe, including Germany. However, it is not as clear today whether or when this transformation will take place at home.
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