Analysis and Forecast of Railway Passenger Volume Using System Dynamics

摘要

A system dynamics model is established based on the analysis of main factors and their relationships in the railway passenger transportation system. The causal loop diagram, flow chart and the Structural equations were established, and relevant parameters are determined. The model is verified by comparison of historical statistical and simulated data. Finally passenger volumes of next five years in railway transport system are forecasted. The results show that the model is effective and feasible. System dynamics model meets the characteristics of railway passenger transport system. It can be used to forecast short-term railway passenger volume well.