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The co-integration analysis of relationship between urban infrastructure and urbanization - A case of Shanghai

机译:城市基础设施与城市化关系的共同整合分析 - 以上海为例

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Urban infrastructure and urbanization influence each other, and quantitative analysis of the relationship between them will play a significant role in promoting the social development. The paper based on the data of infrastructure and the proportion of urban population in Shanghai from 1988 to 2013, use the econometric analysis of co-integration test, error correction model and Granger causality test method, and empirically analyze the relationship between Shanghai's infrastructure and urbanization. The results show that: 1) Shanghai Urban infrastructure has a positive effect for the development of urbanization and narrowing the population gap; 2) when the short-term fluctuations deviate from long-term equilibrium, the system will pull the non-equilibrium state back to equilibrium with an adjust intensity 0.342670. And hospital infrastructure is not only an important variable for urban development in short-term, but also a leading infrastructure in the process of urbanization in Shanghai; 3) there has Granger causality between road infrastructure and urbanization; and there is no Granger causality between water infrastructure and urbanization, hospital and school infrastructures of social infrastructure have unidirectional Granger causality with urbanization.
机译:城市基础设施和城市化互相影响,对他们之间关系的定量分析将在促进社会发展方面发挥重要作用。本文根据基础设施数据和上海市城市人口比例从1988年到2013年,利用了共同集成试验,纠错模型和Granger因果试验方法的计量计量分析,并明确分析了上海基础设施与城市化的关系。结果表明:1)上海城市基础设施对城市化发展和缩小人口差距产生了积极效力; 2)当短期波动偏离长期平衡时,系统将使非平衡状态拉回平衡,调整强度为0.342670。医院基础设施不仅是短期城市发展的重要变量,而且是上海城市化进程中的领先基础设施; 3)道路基础设施与城市化之间有GRANGER因果关系;在水基础设施和城市化之间没有Granger因果关系,社会基础设施的医院和学校基础设施具有与城市化的单向格兰杰因果关系。

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