Forecasting the Use of Institutional Elder Care in China: A System Dynamic Simulation

摘要

With the rapid population aging in China, the older adults who needs for long-term care (LTC) increased dramatically in the past decades. To forecasting the use of institutional elder care in China, this study constructed a system dynamic model for LTC use to capture the decision-making process of living arrangement and institutional care use among the aging population in China. The results showed that the number of older adults living at Institutions will increase from 200 million in 2015 to 290 million in 2035, which account for an Increase of 45%. This study provides policy implications that would assist policy makers understand the LTC delivery process and its influence factors, and help implement effective LTC policy scenarios.