An Analysis of Main Affecting Factors on Chinese GDP Growth and their Influence Mechanism

摘要

In order to understand the main problems of Chinese GDP Growth, the methods of factor analysis, multiple regressions and hierarchical clustering are used to analyze the influences of consumption, investment, export and import on GDP growth, based on the economic data of 31 provinces from 1998 to 2013. The results showed that consumption was the biggest contributor to GDP growth, followed by investment. Export had less effect on GDP growth but was still an unneglectable factor, while import was not really important to GDP. Furthermore, the graded quantitative relationship between GDP growth and typical configurations of consumption, investment and export were found, which was used to assess the potential grades of GDP growth for 31 provinces in China according to the economic data in 2013. It was pointed out that Chinese economy has entered into a GDP low-speed growth stage as a whole. Based on the research results, strengthening consumption and maintaining a suitable investment scale were regarded as an important guarantee of the sustainable and stable development of Chinese economy.