A probabilistic approach is discussed for predicting rare, low-probability, catastrophic events associated with road vehicle dynamics. In particular, a Direct Integration method is compared with a Monte Carlo simulation for predicting road vehicle pitch displacements of sufficiently extreme magnitude to lead to non-linear catastrophic events such as flip-over. A 'Full-Car' simulation model, with 7-degrees of freedom, is used to represent the vehicle dynamic behaviour. The model assumes a bi-linear damper at each of the four suspension struts, where each damper has uncertainty described by a single unknown random parameter value. The vehicle is simulated following a straight-line path along in a deterministic roadway with sinusoidal undulations. The proposed method provides a fast, scatter-free nonlinear uncertainty propagation method that will allow suspension parameter studies to achieve safer vehicle design and operation.
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