Comparison of Success Rate of Numerical Weather Prediction Models with Forecasting System of Convective Precipitation

摘要

The aim of this article is to compare a success rate of a chosen numerical weather prediction (NWP) models with a forecasting system of convective precipitation based on an analysis of ten historical weather events over the territory of the Zlin Region for the year 2015. This paper is based on a previous article “Evaluation of the accuracy of numerical weather prediction models”. The first chapter is a theoretical framework describing the current forecasting systems of convective precipitation, which are selected NWP models and forecasting system of convective precipitation. This chapter describes the principle of creating predictions and selection of individual NWP models. Furthermore, they are provided with basic information about the prediction of convective precipitation. The second chapter outlines the principles of the methods used for evaluating the success rate of forecast precipitation. In the discussion, results of these methods on selected historical weather situations are published. Finally, the work contains an overview of the most accurate NWP models in comparison with the forecasting system of convective precipitation. This refined predictive information of convective precipitation may be especially useful for the crisis management authorities for preventive measures against the occurrence of flash floods.