Projections on future impact and vulnerability of climate change towards rubber areas in Peninsular Malaysia

摘要

Known to perform best in tropical climate, rubber (Hevea brasiliensis) thrives in this country. It is acknowledged as one of the important crops to the country that provides income and employment, especially to the smallholders, estate workers and their families. One of the factors that may influence rubber yield and its productivity is meteorological factors. The outline of this paper is to analyze and assess the future impact and vulnerability of climate change towards rubber in Peninsular Malaysia based on three prominent features, which are increase in temperature (drought), rainfall (flood) and sea level rise. Maps and data-related model in rainfall, temperature, and river basin have been supplied by the National Hydraulic Research Institute Malaysia (NAHRIM). ArcGIS software were further used in this study. This preliminary assessment showed that projections on drought, flood and sea level rise for rubber areas in peninsular Malaysia may not be severely affected by the climatic event. However, current assessment is only at its preliminary stage and in-depth assessment is needed. This work implies that projections are necessary in providing a possible future impact on rubber, being a smallholder's crop, and further adaptation and mitigation approaches can be carried out accordingly.