The Prediction of Temporal-Spatial Distribution of Space Debris

摘要

In this paper, we establish a Temporal-Spatial Distribution of Space Debris Prediction Model based on Kessler model. We deduce debris' flux and the probability that space objects be hit by debris in certain space-time. Next, we make predictions about debris' distribution with different diameters, in different orbits and during discrete years. Besides, we put forward the probability in different orbits.