Debris flow generation prediction system and debris flow generation prediction method

摘要

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a debris flow occurrence prediction system and a debris flow occurrence prediction method that enable occurrence of debris flow to be predicted at an early stage only by installing a water level gauge.SOLUTION: When an operation start command signal Sa is input, a debris flow occurrence prediction section 24 reads out a measured water level at the point of time of the signal input and onwards from a water level memory 23, and detects a highest water level HWL based on the measured water level that has been read out. The debris flow occurrence prediction section also derives a water level descension ratio Revery three minutes based on the measured water level at the point of time tand onwards, when the highest water level was read out from the water level memory 23, and derives a judgment standard water level arrival time T, which is the time when a predicted water level PWLreaches a normal time water level NWL as the judgment standard water level if the water level descends at the water level descension ratio Rthat has been derived. Then, the debris flow occurrence prediction section outputs a warning issuance instruction signal Sb that instructs to issue a debris flow warning, when the obtained judgment standard water level arrival time T is within one hour from the point of time tof the highest water level.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1