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Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Modeling of Particulate Matter Concentrations in Peninsular Malaysia

机译:贝叶斯时空颗粒物质浓度在半岛马来西亚

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This article presents an application of a Bayesian spatio-temporal Gaussian process (GP) model on particulate matter concentrations from Peninsular Malaysia. We analyze daily PM_(10) concentration levels from 35 monitoring sites in June and July 2011. The spatiotemporal model set in a Bayesian hierarchical framework allows for inclusion of informative covariates, meteorological variables and spatiotemporal interactions. Posterior density estimates of the model parameters are obtained by Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Preliminary data analysis indicate information on PM_(10) levels at sites classified as industrial locations could explain part of the space time variations. We include the site-type indicator in our modeling efforts. Results of the parameter estimates for the fitted GP model show significant spatio-temporal structure and positive effect of the location-type explanatory variable. We also compute some validation criteria for the out of sample sites that show the adequacy of the model for predicting PM_(10) at unmonitored sites.
机译:本文介绍了贝叶斯时空高斯过程(GP)模型的颗粒物质浓度从半岛马来西亚的应用。我们将在2011年6月和7月的35个监测网站分析每日PM_(10)浓度水平。贝叶斯等级框架中的时空模型允许包含信息性协变量,气象变量和时空相互作用。通过Markov链蒙特卡罗方法获得模型参数的后密度估计。初步数据分析表明,关于归类为工业位置的站点的PM_(10)级的信息可以解释空间时间变化的一部分。在我们的建模工作中,我们包括站点类型指示器。适合GP模型的参数估计结果显示出显着的时空结构和位置型解释变量的积极效果。我们还计算出出的一些验证标准,以显示出显示模型的充分性以预测未解压位点的模型。

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