Future energy consumption and emissions in East-, Central- and West-China: Insights from soft-linking two global models

摘要

China's role in the global economy and energy markets is expanding, however many uncertainties with regards to the country's future energy consumption and emissions remain. Large regional disparities between China's provinces exist. Scenario analysis for different sub-regions of China will be useful for an improved understanding of China's potential future development and associated global impacts. This study soft-links a global dynamic CGE model and a global technology-rich energy system model. Both models are expanded to include East-, Central-, and West-China. This study shows that soft-linking affects the China-specific reference scenario results in the CGE model considerably. Energy consumption and emissions are decreasing in China until 2050 while regional differences within China remain high.