Gray Prediction of Air Pollutants in Beijing Based on Improved Residual GM (1, 1) Model

摘要

Based on the gray system theory, the original gray predicting model, the residual correction model and the residual model have been established for PM_(10), SO_2 and NO_2, which are the major atmospheric pollution factors in Beijing. After comparing those three models, this paper established a new improved residual model, and the results show that: the improved residual model has reached a better accuracy in forecasting. This model can be used to predict the concentration of common pollutants in air in Beijing for the next few years as well as to forecast the development of air pollutants.