CCS, Nuclear power and Biomass-An Assessment of Option Triangle under Global Warming Mitigation Policy by an Integrated Assessment Model MARIA-23

摘要

It is well understood that the global climate change caused by the increase of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission would be a serious barrier towards the sustainable development. Nuclear power, CCS and biomass have been regarded as the major options in the GHG mitigation policy. However, since the social acceptance of nuclear power expansion has seriously been changed after the gigantic earthquake on March 11, 2011 followed by the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station accident, the energy policy makers are forced to consider both the global warming and the decline of nuclear power simultaneously. This study attempts to address the following key questions: (1) how much additional costs or decline of production will be needed when nuclear power expansion is limited under the GHG emission control policies and (2) to what extent the potential of the biomass' and CCS could compensate for the nuclear power reductions. We expand an integrated assessment model, MARIA-23 (Multiregional Approach for Resource and Industry Allocation) to deal with the CCS options and biomass options taking into account the additional carbon emission by cultivation. The simulation results show the interrelationships of the carbon mitigation contributions of the above three major options under various scenarios.