Potentials of hydrogen and nuclear towards global warming mitigation-expansion of an integrated assessment model MARIA and simulations

摘要

This paper describes an extended version of an integrated assessment model called Multiregional Approach for Resource and Industry Allocation (MARIA) and how it was applied to assess the global and regional greenhouse gas (GHG) emission mitigation policies. The model has been developed to assess the potential contribution of fossil, biomass, nuclear and other energy technologies and land-use changes to future GHG emissions. In this paper, the MARIA model is extended to evaluate a new hydrogen production process through steam-methane reforming at a significantly lower temperature (300-500 ℃) than that of conventional steam-methane reforming processes as a liquid fuel supplier under the long-term global warming strategies. Bern simple carbon cycle model is also included in the model to reflect the recent findings in climate science. The simulation results suggest that hydrogen with Fast Breeder Reactors could supply 5-8 GTOE of hydrogen in the second half of the 21st century when climate policy that stabilizes the atmospheric carbon concentration is introduced. Although biomass does not completely replace fossil energy sources, the simulations show that it effectively mitigates the marginal cost of carbon emission.