Evaluating the Effects of Uncertainty in Unit Characteristics on the Operation and Optimization of Multiunit Hydroplants

摘要

Operational data and unit performance data from sixteen hydroelectric plants provide the basis for scaled unit characteristics in generalized two-unit, three-unit, five-unit, and seven-unit plant configurations. Unit types include Francis units, diagonal flow units, fixed propeller units, and Kaplan units. Three annual generation patterns (an hourly generation pattern, a moderate AGC generation pattern, and a heavy AGC generation pattern) were developed from the operational data. For each unit type, operation and optimization for the two-unit, three-unit, five-unit, and seven-unit plant configurations were evaluated under the three generation patterns with unit performance uncertainties of 1.0%, 2.5%, and 5% and with unit commitments based on unconstrained optimization, simple operational rules, and equal unit power. Results demonstrate that optimized unit commitment is an effective hedge against substantial energy losses and revenue losses due to uncertainty in unit characteristics. These extensive operation efficiency analyses enable owner/operators of hydroelectric plants to estimate the costs and benefits from (a) flow measurement improvements and/or unit performance testing; (b) control system improvements, including rules- based systems and integrated optimizer systems; (c) additional operator guidance and training; and (d) plant performance management during and after unit upgrades. The analyses also provide a template for using site-specific unit characteristics and site- specific operational data to quantify the value of these performance improvements.