Modelling Cyber Vulnerability using Epidemic Models

摘要

This paper documents an epidemic model known as SIR (Susceptible - Infected - Removed units). We derive an approximated solution to the differential equations that define the SIR model. Unlike the exact SIR solution, the approximate solution is analytical and has a closed form expression. We use this approximate model as an inspiration to cyber defence. Such a model allows us to investigate the characteristics of the propagation of electronic viruses. That is, we can determine the number of susceptible units, the number of infected units and the number of removed units as a function of time. This information will eventually permit the defence to find ways to eradicate a virus attack and to show how viruses affect the defence effectiveness.