We consider the planned replacement of equipment in a system of sub-units such as a water collection, processing and supply network. The planner must specify what equipment will be replaced, subject to a budget constraint. The main challenge arises from severe uncertainty in the estimates of the likelihood of equipment failure and of the cost of failure should it occur. The replacement plan must reliably prevent the average cost from exceeding the allocated budget. We employ info-gap decision theory to model and manage the uncertainties and to support the replacement-planning decision.
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