Scenario analysis on economic growth and environmental load in China

摘要

As a less developed country, China has witnessed a rapid GDP growth of over 8% since 2007. The negative side of this glory, however, is numerous resource problems and heavy environmental pollution. How to achieve a harmonious development between economy and environment has become an urgent problem that need to be replied. This paper sets up a quantitative relationship between economic growth and environmental load by applying IPAT equation and its derived equations. Firstly, combined with actual situation of China in 1997-2007, IPAT equation and IGT equation are used to analyze actual situation and existing problems of China in the last 10 years. The relation between descent rate of environmental load (t) and g*=g/ (1+g) is used in analyzing the impacts of economic growth on ecological environment. Secondly, based on STIRPAT model, this paper makes a prediction formed 4 different scenarios on the future relation of economic growth and environmental load in China from 2010 to 2020. In the 4 scenarios, predictive indexes include GDP, energy consumption, SO2 emission and COD emission. Results of the scenario analysis show that the recommended scenario is the solution suitable to China most, i.e. it can both satisfy the demand of economic development as a less developed country and guarantee the sustainable utilization of resource and environment. Finally, the paper puts forward some measures and strategies that should be taken if the recommended scenario is adopted by China.