GEO-to-GEO Optical Sensors: Estimating the Detection Rate of Uncataloged Objects

摘要

The GEO debris environment remains ill-characterized,hindering informing best-practices for the long-term stewardship and sustainment of this unique orbital regime. Current ground-based and LEO-based sensing of GEO limits the cataloged object sizes to ~one ;meter and larger, comprised of some 1000 objects. However, statistical surveys by ground-based telescopes continue to affirm a significant population of small objects. While the United State space object catalog only contains debris attributed to two GEO fragmentation events, many estimate that ten or more GEO fragmentation events have occurred. Further complicating the small debris estimates are wide-ranging assumptions on fragmentation event kinematics, and the extent to which the NASA breakup model applies. However, new efforts may enable GEO-hosted optical sensors, thus providing an opportunity for empirical examination of the small debris population. These potential missions beg the question of exactly what will be "seen" from such payloads. Will the exponentially increasing small debris population with decreasing size flood such sensors with many detection events due to small objects at relatively short ranges? Or, will the angular rates of such objects at required ranges necessary to exceed the detection threshold result in minimal small object detections? A physics-based model is employed to estimate detection events given an optical payload with a parameterized estimate of the GEO small debris environment. It is found that only for the most aggressive small debris population estimates that small objects dominate detections. Object sizes on the order of 10 cm and larger are found to comprise the majority of detection events.