System dynamics modeling for urban economic growth and CO2 emission: a case study of Jakarta, Indonesia

摘要

In 2008, the economic growth of Jakarta, the capital of Indonesia, reached 6,44% with the GDP amount of IDR 501,771,735 million (Central Statistic Bureau, 2008). The high growth of economic contributes to the rapid growth of the number of motorcycle vehicles around 8% or up to 5.798.000 units (Central Statistic Bureau, 2011). This model is expected to reduce CO2 emissions without affecting the growth of GDP or economic growth. High economic growth is still needed by Jakarta to improve the welfare of the population. First, a BAU scenario (business as usual scenario) has been defined, in which the variables of the model were parameterized according to the observed tendency during the period 2008-2012, assuming a geometric growth rate during the period 2009-2029. The second scenario, called EGCO2-1 is characterized by reducing CO2 emission intervention by the developed green open space during the period 2009-2014. In the third scenario, called EGCO2-2 scenario, besides assuming the renewable energy share increased, we imposed the decreasing of the fossil energy share up to 15%. The result of this study is the estimation of economic growth and CO2 emissions in 2029 in each scenario. In the BAU scenario, CO2 emission is 11.492 million tons. In the second scenario, CO2 emission is 0.529 million tons, and in the third scenario, CO2 emission is 7.250 million tons. GDRP is relatively stable at IDR 1,544,570,856 million and economic growth is 5.49%. Finally, main outcome of this work can be role model to Jakarta sustainable urban development policy. These are most important to environmentally aspect and enhancing economic growth for a better future.