Monte-Carlo simulation of information system project performance

摘要

This paper aims to put forward an approach to verify the feasible degree of information system development engineering project and indentify the key risk factors in the process of system development. Firstly, six risk factors, to which have been paid great attention in risk management area, are chosen as independent random variables. Then we use Crystal ball software to fit a probablity distribution for each risk factor, also the structural equation modeling method is adopted to establish a mathematical formula between risk factors and project performance. Finally, we run a Monte-Carlo simulation and get the frequency chart and sensitivity chart of performance, from that we can know about the statistic data and the key risk factors. The conclusion shows that the mean value of project performance is high and User Participation, Project Communication, Personnel Conflict have most greatest impact on project performance.