Assessment of Landslides Activity in Maily-Say Valley, Kyrgyz Tien Shan

摘要

There is a strong possibility that environmental change (whether climate or land use) will be manifest as changes in the size-frequency distribution of landslides in Maily-Say Valley, Kyrgyzstan. The evolution of the landslide activity over the past 50 years has been analysed on the basis of five landslide inventories of 1962, 1984, 1996, 2002 and 2007. Their sizefrequency analyses show that both the number and size of unstable slopes are increasing from 1962 (162 objects) to 2007 (208 objects) and the power-law exponent is decreasing over time. This might indicate that there is an evolution in size probably corresponding to an increase of landslide-related hazards. Remote sensing and spatial analysis through the image subtraction method based on NDVI allowed an accurate detection of new sliding activation in that area. Another aim is to evaluate if and how Data Mining, with its wide range of tools, may support automatic landslide recognition.