BUILDING UP A COMPUTER MODEL TO SIMULATE THE IMPACT OF CARBON EMISSION MITIGATION ON ECONOMY SOCIETY IN CHINA

摘要

This article describes a computer model, SICGE-IESOM model, which is composed of SICGE, IESOM and linkage module. SICGE model is one of energy-economy-environment integrated assessment model, based on GEMPACK software, used to analyze the impact of carbon tax policies on Chinese macro economy. IESOM, based on GAMS software, is used for describing energy system. In linkage module, bidirectional connections between SICGE and IESOM are set up through variables such as energy service demand, technical variables and investment cost. Three scenarios are simulated to analyze the effect of carbon emission mitigation. The results indicate mitigation will cause GDP loss, affect residential consumption; emission reduction will decrease carbon emission intensity, ease energy supply pressure, accelerate the development of non-fossil energies, improve industry structure, and downsize energy-intensive industries.