Prediction of Railway Cargo Carrying Capacity in China Based on System Dynamics

摘要

Prediction of cargo carrying capacity provides a base for planning railway networks, decision-making about the operations of railway freight companies, and development of transport scheme. The application of system dynamics assists in the predication of railway cargo carrying capacity. Through the analysis of the key factors that influence cargo carrying capacity in the railway freight system, the boundary for railway cargo carrying capacity system is determined; the system cause-effect relationship containing six feedback loops is determined; the system flow and simulation formula is constructed; the model for the development of system dynamics-based railway cargo carrying capacity is constructed. With the statistical data about railway freight in China from 1900 to 2009, simulation tests are conducted to verify the effectiveness of the application of system dynamics model in the prediction of railway freight. The railway cargo carrying capacity is predicted from the time from 2011 to 2015. In 2015, it is predicted to reach 5.40486 billion tons. The error analyses indicate that the maximum error of system prediction is 2.66%.