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Relationship between Internet Search Data and Stock Return: Empirical Evidence from Chinese Stock Market

机译:互联网搜索数据与股票回报之间的关系:中国股市的经验证据

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Internet search data can be used for the study of market transaction behaviors. We firstly establish a concept framework to reveal the lead-lag relationship between search data and stock market based on micro-perspective of investors' behaviors. Then we develop three types of composite search indices: investor action index, market condition index, and macroeconomic index. The empirical test indicates the cointegration relationship between search indices and the annual return rate of Shanghai composite index. In the long-term trend, each percentage point increase in the three types of search indices separately, the annual return rate will increase 0.22, 0.56, 0.83 percentage points in the next month. Furthermore, Granger causality test shows that the search indices have significant predictive power for the annual return rate of Shanghai composite index.
机译:Internet搜索数据可用于研究市场交易行为。我们首先建立了一个概念框架,以揭示基于投资者行为的微观角度的搜索数据和股票市场之间的引导滞后关系。然后我们开发三种类型的综合搜索指数:投资者行动指数,市场状况指数和宏观经济指数。实证检验表明,上海综合指数的搜索指数与年回率之间的协整关系。在长期趋势中,每个百分点分别增加三种类型的搜索指数,年回率将增加0.22,0.56,下个月0.83个百分点。此外,格兰杰因果试验表明,搜索指数对上海综合指数年回报率具有显着的预测力量。

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