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Relationship between Internet Search Data and Stock Return: Empirical Evidence from Chinese Stock Market

机译:互联网搜索数据与股票收益率之间的关系:来自中国股票市场的经验证据

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Internet search data can be used for the study of market transaction behaviors. We firstly establish a concept framework to reveal the lead-lag relationship between search data and stock market based on micro-perspective of investors' behaviors. Then we develop three types of composite search indices: investor action index, market condition index, and macroeconomic index. The empirical test indicates the cointegration relationship between search indices and the annual return rate of Shanghai composite index. In the long-term trend, each percentage point increase in the three types of search indices separately, the annual return rate will increase 0.22, 0.56, 0.83 percentage points in the next month. Furthermore, Granger causality test shows that the search indices have significant predictive power for the annual return rate of Shanghai composite index.
机译:互联网搜索数据可用于研究市场交易行为。首先基于投资者行为的微观视角,建立一个概念框架,揭示搜索数据与股市之间的超前-滞后关系。然后,我们开发了三种类型的综合搜索指数:投资者行动指数,市场条件指数和宏观经济指数。实证检验表明,搜索指标与上证综指的年收益率之间存在协整关系。从长期趋势来看,三种搜索指标的每个百分点分别增加,下个月的年回报率将分别提高0.22、0.56、0.83个百分点。此外,格兰杰因果关系检验表明,搜索指数对上海综合指数的年收益率具有显着的预测能力。

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