Regional Wind Power Forecasting Based on Cloud Model and Wind Rate Vector

摘要

The accuracy of wind power forecast is important to the power system operation. A new prediction model is proposed based on cloud reasoning and wind rate vector , combining with the current and the historical change rule of wind speed, using the change rule of wind speed in a period of time to forecast the power gradient in a point-in-time, The wind turbine power prediction is discussed based on power gradient and power eigenvalue. Simulation results on the case study of historical wind speed and generated power data in some area in China demonstrate that the proposed methodology can improve the accuracy of wind speed forecast and has practical value, especi9ally for the wind turning point.