Introducing Resources in Oil Spill Trajectory Modeling – Contingency Analysis

摘要

In Brazil, the decision of the minimum amount of resources to be used in response operations are guided by the requirements established in the national legislation and the optimal is advised by oil spill response specialists. Important instrument to orient the determination of strategies and resources in Oil Spill Response Plans is the oil trajectory modeling, which shows the region that can be covered by the spill and the locations likely to be achieved in different seasonal conditions. Meanwhile, this modeling normally considers the drafting of the total spill volume without the action of any contingency procedure, which does not reflect a real emergency situation. The main objective of this proposal is to evaluate an oil spill trajectory modeling that covers this gap and allows a better preparation of the oil & gas companies to deal with oil spill incidents. The oil trajectory modeling (probabilistic and deterministic) suggested by this paper proposal will be made through the MEMW (Marine Environmental Modeling Workbench), a computational tool developed by SINTEF which includes OSCAR (Oil Spill Contingency and Response) model. This model, developed for calculating the dispersion of oil slick, is composed by weathering and trajectory models in three dimensions and it can assess the progress of the oil in the water surface and water column considering the influence of the main strategies used during an oil spill response. The process to evaluate and test the tool will comprise two main steps: (a) parameter sensitive analysis to determine relative importance of factors in each strategy provided in the model (containment and recovery, chemical dispersant); (b) assessment of the different strategies, capacities and locations of resources in cases of oil spills at sea, through the analysis of different incident scenarios. The main result expected for this tool is study and select, case-by-case, the best combination of oil spill response strategies and the optimal amount and distribution of resources, according to the particularities of the project. Therefore, the tool will contribute to improve the emergency response plans, increasing its reliability and efficiency, as well as provide a procedure for costs optimization.