PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To manage the reliability of a power system while coping with an increase in contingencies. SOLUTION: The medium-term forecast cross-section generation unit 202 makes a medium-term forecast based on supply and demand plan information 221, power transaction information 222, adjustment power transaction information 223, system equipment data 224, power generation/demand performance data 225, and balancing group information 226. The cross section 227 is generated, and the KPI analysis unit 203 calculates the KPI 229 of the system state when the contingency failure 228 occurs in the middle term prediction cross section 227 based on the middle term prediction cross section 227 and the contingency failure 228, and the contingency failure prediction unit 27. Supposes a contingency 228 of the power system 108 based on the medium-term prediction section 227, and the contingency classification unit 204 classifies the contingency 228 based on the KPI 229. [Selection diagram] Figure 2
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