Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on the Surface Energy and Water Balance of the Seyhan River Basin Turkey

摘要

In this study, the surface energy and water balance components and related hydrological variables of the Seyhan River basin Turkey are estimated through the off-line simulation of the LSM (Land Surface Model) forced by the products of the RCM (Regional Climate Model) for both present and future condition. For future climate condition, two products were produced from different GCM results. For the landcover condition, three landuse scenarios are provided. By the combination of climate condition and landuse scenario, 6 simulations were conducted and compared for future. To be consistent with landcover condition, vegetation parameters were changed accordingly for the future landuse adaptation scenario by applying the average seasonal cycle for each vegetation class. Maximum SWE (Snow Water Equivalent) is almost 0.4Gt in present climate, while it will decrease as small as 0.1Gt in future climate.As for the irrigated area, annual evaporation is about 800mm, and about 500mm of irrigation water must be supplied to keep the soil wetness during the growing season in hot and dry summer. In terms of basin average annual water balance, precipitation is projected to decrease about 170mm, while evapotranspirationand runoff decrease about 40mm and 110mm, respectively. Considering the amount of current water balance component, the impact on runoff is significantly large.